That East Carolina was selected by Conference USA coaches to win the league’s East Division didn’t come as a huge surprise.

The Pirates return the overwhelming majority of their key personnel from a team that won eight and nearly ran the conference table last year. The offense is as loaded as it has been since 2001, and the defense can only improve under the direction of new coordinator Rick Smith.

In a league that has been watered down by realignment, why wouldn’t ECU be expected to exceed 2012 benchmarks?

Depending upon how well the Pirates fare in these toss-up games ultimately will make that determination:

• September 14 versus Virginia Tech: The Pirates should enter this game 2-0, and these aren’t your father’s Hokies. ECU has given Tech fits in recent years, including a win in 2008 and near miss in 2011. Given the way both teams play, and the fact that it’s in Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium, this game is a winnable one for ECU. And a 3-0 start could propel the Pirates to the ten-plus win season of which some believe they are capable.

• October 5 at Middle Tennessee: ECU will be fresh off consecutive games against regional ACC rivals. Naturally you have to wonder if the emotional tank will be full. Despite the Rick Stockstill jokes that are still prevalent around Greenville, the Blue Raiders are well coached. They also should be considered a legitimate contender in C-USA’s East Division, so taking them lightly could be a devastating mistake.

• November 9 versus Tulsa: Could this be a preview of the league championship game? On paper, many believe so, given the number of returnees on both depth charts. It’s no stretch to suggest that Tulsa might be the most physical opponent on the Pirates’ schedule, a departure from Golden Hurricane teams of the past. TU coach Bill Blankenship will bring a bruising running game and the league’s toughest defense into Greenville, making this one a test of mental wits.

• November 23 at N.C. State: Play this one in September and the Pirates have a decided edge. The Wolfpack have unfamiliar schemes, uncertainty at quarterback, and depth issues at key positions. But by the time ECU rolls into Raleigh, the Pack should have an established QB and more comfort with Dave Doeren’s schemes. The Pirates have won six of the last ten against State, and the overall record of both teams will have little bearing on the outcome of this one.

• November 29 at Marshall: The last scheduled meeting against the rival Herd could be a special one. This game is forecast by many to determine who represents the East in the C-USA championship, and the past two meetings have been overtime classics. Given the overall number of offensive returnees for both clubs, another shootout is a safe bet. The weather could be a little dicey, but at least the Pirates have the benefit of playing it during the warmest part of the day.

Common sense suggests the Pirates won’t win all five of these. The fact is, most teams wouldn’t.

But you have to figure the Pirates need to win three if they want to classify the 2013 season as special.

Biggest loss

Last week East Carolina finally confirmed what we knew was inevitable: the ineligibility of receivers Justin Jones and Jabril Solomon. Together, they combined for 42 catches and 756 yards.

But only one of the dismissals potentially will have a significant impact.

Though big, Jones has always seemed out of place in offensive coordinator Lincoln Riley’s system. Recruited as a true tight end by Skip Holtz’s staff, he isn’t well suited to play the inside receiver position and mostly has been a situational specialist.

Solomon, on the other hand, was by far the Pirates’ best returning deep threat and was poised to have a breakout season. That means either senior Reese Wiggins will need to establish himself as a more consistent option, or one of the younger receivers will have to step up.

One of the two, if not both, could materialize to be the case. But until that occurs, it can’t be considered a foregone conclusion.

Secondary impact

The biggest surprise of the 2013 season could very well be the area in which ECU struggled the most last year. That’s how much of an impact the presence of Smith can have.

When Smith arrived for his first tour in Greenville back in 2005, the secondary experienced a complete metamorphosis. Much of that can be attributed to the personnel and philosophical changes Smith made on the back end of the Pirates’ defense.

The most notable was moving Kasey Ross from safety to corner. It proved a stroke of brilliance as Ross played the position as well as anyone over the past decade.

Throughout Smith’s time at ECU, the secondary produced some of the program’s surest tacklers. Much of that can be attributed to how well Smith had his players positioned both before and after the snap.