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Predicting the Conference USA football pecking order is
never a simple exercise, even for the most knowledgeable observer. That task
has gotten even tougher with the league's recent string of attrition.
Moderate change is to be expected even in an ordinary year,
considering the increased regularity of coaching casualties and early NFL
defections. But C-USA has more than met its quota this off-season, with over
one-fourth of the league now under new leadership and the top four players
Texas Christian's LaMarcus McDonald, Houston's Joffrey Reynolds, and
Louisville's Dave Ragone and Dewayne White all prepping for the upcoming
NFL draft.
It would be difficult for any league to recover quickly from
the loss of such star power, let alone a league still seeking national
respectability. In some ways, the recent shakeups come at the most
inopportune time for C-USA, which is struggling to maintain its affiliation
with the Houston Bowl.
That goes without mentioning recent rumblings that the BCS
is going to re-evaluate its current situation, perhaps even entertaining
thoughts of a playoff. Regardless of the direction the six power conferences
decide to steer, the likelihood of C-USA inclusion is low, especially with
the inconsistency conference members have shown throughout the league's
brief history.
That inconsistency is a characteristic that should carry
over into the 2003 season.
With a 10-2, Top 25 finish in 2002 that included an
impressive victory over Colorado State in the Liberty Bowl, Texas Christian
will likely be the league favorite when the coaches convene this summer.
However, matching this season's performance will be no can of corn, what
with the losses of C-USA's top receiving duo Adrian Madise and LaTarence
Dunbar along with half of a defensive unit that ranked among the nation's
best.
True, TCU returns an abundance of young talent, including
running back Lonta Hobbs and quarterback Tye Gunn, but both will operate
behind a line hit extensively by graduation. Additional concern will
surround the stability of Gunn's knee, which will take its share of hits in
the Horned Frogs' option-oriented attack.
In quarterback Gino Guidugli, Cincinnati boasts the likely
C-USA pre-season player of the year. Capturing that hardware will be quite a
challenge, even for Guidugli, who will hand the ball off to an unproven
runner while mixing in a trio of inexperienced receivers.
Even if Rick Minter is able to make a seamless transition
with new offensive personnel, he'll have to make tremendous strides in
shoring up his defense, which in recent years has been a shaky commodity at
best.
Louisville's downward spiral should continue as the
Cardinals will undergo C-USA's biggest transition following a disappointing
7-6 finish. Ragone, White, along with a host of others are gone, and head
coach John L. Smith bolted for Michigan State, departures that could keep
the U of L home for the holidays next season for the first time since '97.
Such a discouraging scenario is highly possible for U of L,
considering new coach Bobby Petrino was the braintrust behind slightly-above
average offenses at Auburn, and potential starting quarterback Stefan Lefors
has yet to take a meaningful snap under center.
Graduation certainly wasn't kind to Southern Miss, which
continues to see its stock plummet. Running back Derrick Nix was the only
consistent performer for the Golden Eagles' offense, and now USM is
beginning to show vulnerability on defense, too.
Tulane was by far the surprise team in '02, proving by
season's end it was C-USA's second best offering. After years of falling
short in weekly shootouts, the Green Wave finished the year 8-5, punctuated
by an impressive taming of high-powered Hawaii in the Hawaii Bowl.
The offseason has been virtually quiet for Tulane, meaning
the Green Wave could solidify a place in C-USA's upper-division next fall.
UAB could be ready to make a move, thanks largely to the
strides the Blazers made offensively as last season progressed. Watson Brown
finally has a quarterback Rodney Hackney capable of running his
high-powered attack, and the young defense should be much-improved.
New East Carolina coach John Thompson shouldn't find the
cupboard bare in Greenville, with plenty of talent returning on both sides
of the ball. The key for the Pirates coach will be to find an offensive
coordinator whose up-tempo schemes will fit the talents of quarterback Paul
Troth and running back Art Brown, both of whom boast all-star potential in
the talent-depleted league.
At the very least, Pirates faithful can expect marked
improvement on defense. Once described as a "defensive genius" by former ECU
coach Steve Logan, Thompson's attacking, blitzing approach should fit nicely
with the Pirates' small, speedy personnel.
Like the Pirates, both Houston and Memphis must improve
considerably on defense if either has sights set on a postseason run. Both
showed the ability to pile up yards and points by the bushel, but must
restock their offenses at key positions.
The Cougars' task will be even taller under new coach Art
Briles, who will likely introduce a new offensive system in an attempt to
keep his porous defense off the field.
Unless Army can leap-frog its way up the C-USA ranks, Todd
Berry could be the next head coach to hit the unemployment line. That could
very well be the case if quarterback Reggie Nevels spends more time nursing
injuries than he does under center.
The Black Knights have struggled adapting to Berry's
wide-open attack, and without a quarterback of Nevels' athleticism, they
will continue to sputter.
Adding more blur to the C-USA picture is the addition of
South Florida, one of the fastest rising program's in Division I-A. The
Bulls stayed home this season with a 9-2 record, but got a boost when head
coach Jim Leavitt withdrew his name from consideration for the Alabama job
and signed a five-year extension with USF.
With plenty of talent and its location in a recruiting
hotbed, South Florida looks to be a force for years to come. How quickly the
Bulls contend for the conference championship will depend largely on their
ability to replace all-everything quarterback Marquel Blackwell, arguably
the nation's most exciting quarterback.
If Leavitt can come up with a capable signal caller who can
mimic Mr. USF Football, the Bulls will immediately challenge for preeminence
in the league.
Sunshine State of mind
By hiring Jerry Odom as his first defensive coordinator,
Thompson revealed two things about his immediate agenda:
One, Florida will become a high-priority talent pool which
the Pirates will fish with more than a bamboo pole. Two, Thompson will be
intimately involved with the direction of the defense, more than he may have
originally suggested.
Odom, 34, was widely considered the Florida Gators' best
recruiter, largely due to the relationships he built as a high school coach
in the Sunshine State. But the former Gators linebacker has been a full-time
assistant at UF for just two seasons and probably isn't seasoned enough to
direct the defense without heavy input from his new boss.
That's a fair trade-off, though. Thompson needs Odom's
recruiting skills and can closely tutor his young defensive coordinator
until he earns his wings.
