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Conference USA Breakdowns and Matchups
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Denny
O'Brien's Game Day Preview
Saturday, October 5, 2002
FOOTBALL
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ECU, Army fighting to salvage
seasons
©2002 Bonesville.net
The third meeting between Steve
Logan and former protégé Todd Berry promises to be the most intriguing to
date.
In eight games, East Carolina
and Army have combined for just one win, a 24-20 Pirates victory over
Tulane. Both the Pirates and Black Knights have victimized themselves with
turnovers, while neither has proven capable of forcing their opponents into
mistakes.
East Carolina ranks 116 out of
117 Division-I teams in turnover margin. Army ranks last.
"They are working on some
problems with their quarterback due to injuries at that position and playing
a lot of people," Logan said. "Todd (Berry) has been working on that
because it has caused a lot of turnovers."
"Although, this last weekend
they played Southern Miss very well and it was their best game played to
date. So they are making some progress up there and we have our own
basket-full of problems down here."
An injury to Reggie Nevels in
Army's opener against Holy Cross has forced Berry into a quarterback
shuffle. Four quarterbacks have seen time under center, which has prevented
the Black Knights from finding a rhythm on offense.
Army QBs have combined to throw
just one touchdown pass this season, while tossing nine interceptions.
But despite the Knight's
turnover woes, Berry was encouraged by some things he saw in walk-on Matt
Silva last Saturday against Southern Miss.
"He (Silva) kept trying to make
plays for us and I commend him for that," Berry said. "Some of his problems
are certainly fixable."
"For example, he double pumped
on three passes and two of them were intercepted. But he made some nice
throws as well. It all has to do with maturity. He will be fine. We just
can't turn the ball over."
Logan and the Pirates can
certainly attest to that.
When ECU has the ball
East Carolina's formula for offensive
success is quite simple. Rush for more than 150 yards or more, and the
Pirates generally win. Rush for less, and they don't.
In losses to Duke, Wake Forest, and West
Virginia, ECU averaged just over 70 yards on the ground. Against Tulane, a
24-20 win, the Pirates produced a more characteristic 226.
"Offensively, they are getting ready to
explode and that worries me," Berry said. "They have issues with immaturity
and dropped passes. But (East Carolina) has had a productive offense for
many years now. When the light bulb goes on offensively, they are a
difficult team to stop."
The Pirates will look to run first, using
its mammoth offensive line to make room for scatbacks Art Brown and Marvin
Townes. They should be successful, as the Black Knights are surrendering
171 yards per game.
A strong ground attack should open the
passing lanes for quarterback Paul Troth, whose play was one of the few
offensive few bright spots in last week's 37-17 loss in Morgantown.
Advantage: East Carolina
When Army has the ball
With Nevels absent from the lineup, Berry's
high-octane offense has remained mostly grounded.
"Offensively, we are in a Catch-22," Berry
said. "We remained conservative against Louisville and tried not to lose
the game. Last week against Southern Miss, I opened things up and the result
was that we turned the ball over."
Having seen tape of East Carolina's loss to
West Virginia, Berry may very well shift gears again, focusing on the
Pirates' primary weakness, which seems to be its inability to contain the
inside running game. Considering Silva threw six interceptions last week,
that's not such a bad idea.
Look for running back Josh Holden to get his
share of carries, as Army, like WVU, has shown it can be successful running
out of a spread attack. The Pirates' young linebackers will again be
challenged to deal with an offensive package that incorporates misdirection,
which last week was the equation for disaster.
Army, however, doesn't present the same
caliber of athletes the Pirates faced last week, so there is little reason
to believe that a repeat of last week's misery is in order. At the same
time, though, Berry has proven his teams can move the ball against his
former mentor.
Advantage: Even
Special teams
Kicker Kevin Miller and punter Jarad Preston
have been the Pirates' most consistent performers thus far, anchoring a
special teams unit that, with the exception of a couple of muffed return
efforts, has been special indeed.
Miller is as accurate as they come, nailing
four of his five field goal attempts, three of which have exceeded 44
yards. Preston's 44.6-yard average ranks him sixth nationally in punting.
Army can't contend with those numbers and it
hasn't been extraordinary in its return game, either. If this one is close,
the kicking game gives the Pirates a definite edge and could be the
difference.
Advantage: ECU
Prediction
East Carolina has a history of playing well
following a disheartening loss. And considering that Army rates near or at
the bottom of all major offensive categories, there is reason to believe the
Pirates will perform much better defensively and win, 27-16.
Conference USA Capsules
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Denny O'Brien's
C-USA Power Poll
1. Southern Miss
(4-1, 2-0) - Golden Eagles unimpressive in win over Army.
2. Louisville
(3-2, 1-0) - Cardinals still flying high after marquee win over
FSU.
3. Cincinnati
(2-2, 1-0) - Bearcats toppled Temple, but in-state test versus
Miami won't be easy.
4. TCU (3-1, 0-1)
- Frogs should even their conference record against struggling
Cougars.
5. East Carolina
(1-3, 1-0) - Though it's early in the season, Pirates in must-win
situation against Army.
6. UAB (2-3, 1-0)
- C-USA's enigmatic Blazers jump several spots after mashing
Memphis.
7. Memphis (2-3,
1-2) - Tigers may have overlooked Blazers, but won't be afforded a
mulligan.
8. Tulane (2-3,
1-2) - Can't get much worse than 49-0 blowout to Horns.
9. Houston (2-2,
0-1) - Keeps getting worse for Cougars, who lost starting QB
Barrick Nealy for the season.
10. Army (0-4, 0-2)
- Knights struggling to score points with walk-on QBs. |
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Houston at TCU
In losing quarterback Barrick Nealy, Houston
will be without its dangerous run-pass threat under center. The Cougars
could certainly use him against TCU's active defense.
The Frogs enter the game ranked 17th
nationally in total defense, while Houston checks in at 76th in total
offense. The Cougars have found it even more difficult to pass on
opponents, which doesn't bode well considering TCU is yielding just 185
yards per game.
TCU would like to think of itself as a
contender in C-USA, regardless of its 0-1 league record. If the Frogs lose
at home this week, though, they'll earn the label of pretender. But they
won't, winning easily, 33-17.
Tulane at Louisiana-Monroe
Tulane surprised many by jumping out of the
gates at 2-0. But the Green Wave's current three-game slide is along the
lines of what many predicted.
The Wave should even its record this week,
though, with Louisiana-Monroe boasting a 0-4 record. Among the Indians'
losses are a 68-0 drubbing by Kansas State and a 24-19 defeat to I-AA
McNeese State.
Tulane isn't nearly as good as K-State, but
definitely better than McNeese. Unless the aftermath of Lili is a factor,
the Wave wins handily, 31-10.
Game of the
Week:
Miami (Ohio) at Cincinnati
Ben
Roethlisberger is as polished a
passer as Cincinnati has seen thus far, having completed 62 percent of his
passes while averaging 236 yards per game. At 6'5", 240-pounds, the
sophomore gunslinger has the physical tools that has NFL scouts drooling, to
go along with the decision-making skills necessary to succeed at the next
level.
In quarterback Gino Guidugli, Cincinnati has
developed a young Captain Comeback. Also a sophomore, the Kentucky Kid
rallied the Bearcats from two touchdowns back in the season opener against
TCU, while almost pulling off an improbable last-minute victory against Ohio
State.
It promises to be the weekend's best duel of
unknown QBs, featuring two of the nation's better mid-major teams. Much is
at stake in this 114-year old rivalry, including possession of the coveted
Victory Bell, which goes home with the winning school.
These two look identical on paper, with the
strength of each being a strong-armed field general. The Hawks and 'Cats
also share the same weakness, which is an inability to stop the run.
Whichever is able to control the line of
scrimmage should prove victorious. Demarco McCleskey and Cincinnati's
outstanding line might just be the difference -- Bearcats 27, Red Hawks 22.
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02/23/2007 01:46:55 AM
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