If I were a betting man, I wouldn't touch East Carolina's opener with a redwood tree. The 28-point spread exceeds the threshold where lunch money is too big a risk for even the most astute gambler.

That said, my initial hunch is the Pirates don't win Saturday. Their winless history at Mountaineer Field and West Virginia's talent, depth, and Top 10 ranking seem insurmountable obstacles for a young team fresh off a 1-11 campaign.

At least that's the advice Vegas gave when it opened the lines — the Pirates, overwhelming underdogs, aren't a safe bet to erase their Morgantown woes.

Truth is, they don't have to.

Success Saturday shouldn't be measured by a win or loss. Following last season's free fall, East Carolina isn't at a stage where progress can be judged exclusively by the final score.

Even the toughest jury must consider the supporting evidence before issuing a verdict, and a season-opening showdown against a longtime nemesis in a hostile environment should provide only a small portion of the case.

But it will be an important opening statement for 2004.

"We are all 100 percent together," Pirates coach John Thompson said last week. "It's not offense versus defense and I think our team knows that.

"We have competitiveness but we are together as a team. These guys stuck together last year as a team."

Not a bad foundation considering last season's disappointment. Despite a lone victory against winless Army, Thompson kept his team together and emphasized the importance of battling opponents until the final whistle.

The next step is to begin paving the road to recovery — and the first phase just happens to be the toughest on the slate.

West Virginia has perhaps its best club since Major Harris was king of the mountain. Loaded with size and skill — not to mention the luxury of membership in a downsized Big East — the Mountaineers are as close as it gets to a BCS lock.

Winning, no doubt, will be the Pirates' ultimate mission Saturday. However, a strong showing in which marked improvement can be identified easily will far outweigh any final tally.

For starters, the offense needs to display the signs of improvement we all assume it will. The presence of offensive coordinator Noah Brindise alone is a definite upgrade from last year, but there still are questions that only Saturday's showdown can begin to answer.

Much of ECU's success is dependent upon the progress of unproven performers. From quarterback James Pinkney to the relatively green offensive front, the Pirates lack experience in two areas where they can't afford to be weak.

Inability to stretch the field almost assuredly would produce offensive numbers that mirror last season. Breakdowns in protection against the Mountaineers' aggressive 3-3-5 could lead to a handful of turnovers.

Defensively, the Pirates couldn't ask for a more unforgiving yardstick by which to get an early gauge. Where ECU struggled the most in 2003 are the areas in which West Virginia is most dangerous. Inside running and play-action passing burned the Pirates on wholesale occasions last year, and the Mountaineers have enough weapons to execute both.

In the process, East Carolina also must show it has addressed one of its most glaring weaknesses in recent years — finishing games.

"We will be a fourth quarter focused team," Thompson said. "We are going to be tougher, especially in the fourth quarter. That goes back to when we started in January, the investment these guys made with all the hard work in the spring and this summer."

Measuring the return on that investment won't be as simple as calculating ECU's overall record. For my money, the parts this season are far more important than the sum.