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From The Dugout
By Keith LeClair
©2004 Bonesville.net
National League Preview
Two weeks ago when I shared my American
League picks, I got slammed on a few of my choices, but that's the whole
fun of going out on a rope and making some wild predictions. I could
just listen to Peter Gammons and follow his picks, but where is the fun
in that?
I wonder how many so-called NFL experts
picked the Carolina Panthers to be in the Super Bowl this past year, so
if I make you upset with any of my picks, wait until the seasons over
before you grill me.
Just kidding.
If you disagree, give me your best
shot. Actually, I like hearing different view points and opinions.
Without that, we would all never learn more than what we think we
already know. So, here are my wild and crazy picks for the National
League.
NL East
1.
Philadelphia Phillies: I have my reservations on this division and who
will end in first at the end of September. All the talk is on the
Phillies, with the acquisition of closer Billy Wagner from Houston, but
I still don't believe their starting pitching is all that great. They
have Millwood, Wolfe, Padilla, Milton and Myers, who are all quality,
but are still going to give up some runs. With all that said, Pat
Burrell will be key to the Phillies' hopes of winning a divisional
title. If he can come back and put up the numbers he did two years ago,
I think this will give the Phillies a huge boost in winning the
division. If not, and they falter at the beginning, Larry Bowa may be
replaced by the All-Star break. I really don't see anybody in this
division giving them a challenge, except for the Marlins and their young
powerful arms.
2.
Florida Marlins: They took a blow this off-season, losing Derek Lee,
Ivan Rodriguez and their horses out of the pen in Looper and Urbina.
With all those losses, they are counting on their pitching staff to
carry the load and keep the Marlins in a lot of close games. That will
put a lot of pressure on newly acquired closer Amando Benitez, who has a
powerful arm that throws in the mid-to-upper nineties, but has been very
inconsistent closing out games. Nobody plays better fundamental baseball
than the Marlins, and if Miguel Cabrera turns into the superstar
everybody believes he will, the Marlins have a shot. If not for the loss
of Rodriguez behind the plate, I would have given them the edge over the
Phillies.
3.
Braves/Mets, take your pick: I will go with the Braves, simply because
they have Bobby Cox in their dugout and John Smoltz in the pen. Other
than that, it's a toss up. The Braves are in a cost-cutting, rebuilding
mode and the reign of the 90s and 2000s I am afraid to say is over. I
heard John Scherholtz make an interesting statement. He said, if we
can't win championships through division titles, let's try the wild card
route. That's what your going to see from the Braves over the next few
years and they certainly have the farm system to make it possible. It
wouldn't ever shock me to see the Braves make another run at a division
title this year, but if that happens, some no-name guys will have to
fill some awfully big shoes, now that Sheffield, Lopez, and Maddux are
all in different uniforms. Look for names like Adam Laroche, Johnny
Estrada and Mark DeRosa to step in and fill the losses, along with
acquired right fielder J.D. Drew.
4.
New York Mets: The Mets are an improved team over last year, but they
still have a long way to go. They have a starting rotation with Glavine,
Leiter and Trachsel, but the bad news is they already have hit their
prime. I like the move in getting Mike Cameron in the off-season to help
improve their defense and give the offense a little added speed. They
have moved Mike Piazza to first base, in hopes that he can stay healthy
and regain his offensive numbers of a few years back. Taking over at
short is Kazuo Matsui, signed out of Japan, who people are sky high on
and think is going to be a great player. The Mets are headed in the
right direction, especially having Art Howe leading the ship. I will say
the Mets will make some noise this year and with a good off-season
contend in 2005. Who knows, if Glavine, Leiter and Trachsel put up big
numbers and the Mets' defense plays better than the Bad News Bears,
maybe — and that is a maybe — they can compete for a division title this
year. Sorry Coach Herenda, that was an April Fool's joke.
5.
Montreal Expos/whoever wants them: I truly admire their courage and how
competitive they have been in the past, but this off-season did me in.
Guerrero gone. Vasquez gone. And whomever has the chance to be a solid
player, once they become a free agent — gone. With all that said, I give
Frank Robinson credit, he gets those guys to play hard and compete year
in and year out. I assume the same will be true this year, as every year
they just seem to reload with guys brought up through their system. Who
knows, if the Phillies get the injury bug and the Marlins stumble on
offense, maybe a team slightly over .500 can win this division — like
the Expos.
NL Central
1.
Houston Astros: I am going with Houston for a couple different reasons:
One, I fear that the Cubs' Mark Prior's arm may give him problems and
that would be a horrific blow to the them. It's so cold in Chicago
during the first part of the season that I truly believe it affects guys
in the long run when it comes to tender arms. That's not scientific,
just my personal opinion from coaching in the mountains. I know when I
was coaching at Western Carolina, our throwing program at times would be
dictated on the temperature outside and I had to bring guys along a
little more slowly. I bet it is really tough on the staff coming out of
Arizona for spring training and then opening up in Chicago, where temps
could be below freezing. Two, I like the fact that Pettite and Clemens
are coming over from the AL into the NL where guys have not faced them
much. This should give them an advantage, especially early in the year.
This will be one of the best divisional races in all of baseball this
year. If the Astros can replace the loss of Billy Wagner, and Bagwell,
Biggio and Berkman can put up solid offensive numbers, I think they will
win the division. I just hope the Cubs fans don't egg my house on this
pick.
2.
Chicago Cubs: The most dangerous team in baseball, especially with
acquisitions of Derek Lee and Greg Maddux. But something inside me just
thinks they could have some potential arm problems before the season
ends. The tenderness in Mark Prior's elbow and shoulder that will keep
him out until early May concerns me, even though doctors have given him
a clean bill of health. I think if the Cubbies can get through April,
May and June with a healthy staff and into the dog days of August and
September, watch out, because that's when the power arms begin to take
over and dominate. And we all know that the Cubs have the most powerful
arms in all of baseball, without question. Another factor to weigh in
during this race that very few people mention, is the Cubs have a very
good hitting pitching staff, versus the two newcomers from Houston
coming over from the AL. With all that said, I truly predict the Astros
to win the division in a tight race that will go down to the final days.
But Cubs fans, don't get too down, because the wild card is yours and
the last three wild card teams won the World Series, so this could be
the year we hear Harry Carey ringing out from heaven, "Holy cow the Cubs
win, the Cubs win!"
3.
St. Louis Cardinals: The sleeper pick if you have any guts, but without
pitching I can't see it happening. If the Cardinals can hit their way
into contention and some teams fall out of the race early, expect to see
the Cardinals go after a couple of frontline arms and push both the Cubs
and Astros to the end. This team is scary offensively with Edmonds,
Pujols and Rolen back-to-back-to-back in the lineup. If I had to pick
one player to start a franchise today, it would be Albert Pujols. The
guy can flat out hit, period. Don't be shocked if the men in red put
together a great run and knock off one of the favorites and take over
the wild card spot. Especially if somehow their pitching can keep them
in ball games and just give Tony LaRussa a chance to manage late in
games.
4.
The last three flip a coin. OK, I will go with Pittsburg because I know
their GM Dave Littlefield, and he is a great guy who is a very sharp
baseball man. Pittsburg is building from the ground up with its farm
system and trades. I personally don't know a lot about their players,
other than Jason Kendall, the sausage beater Randall Simon, and Kris
Benson, but I do know they have some very talented young guys on the
way. Like all young teams, they will hang around a couple of months and
tease you, but by September, they will be 20 games back. A fourth place
finish would mean a lot to this organization for the future, and I
predict in three years Pittsburg will be in the playoffs.
5.
Cincinnati Reds: Why, because I was a Big Red Machine fan growing up and
loved Sparky Anderson. Unfortunately, they are about the distance from
Mars to Earth in becoming another Big Red Machine. I must say with Jerry
Narron as their bench coach, I hope they shock the world and win it all.
6.
Milwaukee Brewers: Anybody that has sausage races during a game and a
mascot who slides down into a giant-sized mug after a home run to
entertain fans is my pick to finish last. I have some great news. Bud
Selig sold the team and saved a bunch of money switching his car
insurance to Geico, so any Brewers fan out their, help is on the way. In
all seriousness, the Brewers have done a great job in the draft the past
few years and have some exciting new players on the way. In fact, their
farm system is supposedly loaded and ready. 2008 is not out of the
question.
NL West
1.
Arizona Diamondbacks: I can't ever go against one of my former players
and Pirate greats in Chad Tracy, who we all are pulling for to make the
25-man roster this spring. Plus, with a healthy Randy Johnson and some
talented young arms, this team is primed and ready to go. Add Richie
Sexton to the offense and a healthy Louis Gonzalez, and put them in a
sub-par division, and there you have it. Not to mention a youngster by
the name of Chad Tracy, who is being compared to Wade Boggs by his
teammates. Only question I have, and it's a big one: Who will be the
closer? Matt Mantei is recovering slowly from surgery and has not had a
great spring training, so this leaves the closing role to bullpen by
committee, which I am not a big fan of. With question marks about Jason
Schmidt and Rob Nen of the Giants, I anticipate the D-backs to bounce
back and win the division, even without Curt Schilling, who is playing
now for the classy Boston Red Sox.
2.
San Francisco Giants: If Schmidt is healthy and Barry can find a new
supplier (just kidding) the Giants will repeat as division champions.
With Schmidt healthy, it gives the Giants such a different look to their
whole pitching staff. You may ask how one guy can do this. Very easy, he
is a twenty-game winner and has, in my view, the best stuff in baseball,
which allows the rest of your staff to match up accordingly to other
teams. Can Barry do it again? Only if he gets some protection in the
lineup so teams pitch to him. If not, he will continue to get walked at
another record pace. Prediction: No roids, no Schmidt, no division
title.
3.
San Diego Padres: I like what they did in the off-season, acquiring
catcher Roberto Hernandez from Oakland and signing David Wells to
surround some good young arms. This is my sleeper pick if closer Trevor
Hoffman returns to his old self and can dominate the ninth inning. The
offense should be solid with Brian Giles, Ryan Klesko and the young
up-and-coming guys Sean Burroughs and former Clemson star Khalil Greene.
This is a team to watch, especially if Wells can have a big year for
them in the number one role.
4.
Colorado and the LA Dodgers: Do I dare pick Colorado? Only because they
have Todd Helton and Larry Walker, two of my favorite hitters to watch
and the Dodgers can not hit.
5.
Los Angeles Dodgers: I am sorry Dodgers fans, but not only can they not
hit, their starting pitching is suspect. Hey, don't get too down. A
filthy rich owner just bought them out and you have the best closer in
the game, with Greg Gagne. So, keep your chins up and be patient, for
the Dodgers will be back. As Governor Schwarzenegger says, "I'll be
back..," hopefully sooner rather than later.
That's all folks, my eye is getting
tired.
If you
have a question or comment about the Pirates in particular or baseball
in general, fire your best pitch at Ol' Condo:
Sound off to Coach LeClair...
02.23.07 10:27 AM
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