PRE-GAME ANALYSIS
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Keys to the
Game
Friday,
October 26, 2012
By Kevin Monroe |
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For the seventh
straight year,
Kevin Monroe, color analyst for the Pirate
ISP Sports Radio Network, provides “Kevin’s
Keys to The Game.” In his weekly breakdown of
what East Carolina must do to beat its
upcoming opponent, Monroe brings a unique
perspective to the task as a member of the
broadcast team and as a former star
defensive back for the Pirates (1995-99).
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ECU vs. Navy
Saturday, Oct. 27, 2012 • 3:30 pm
Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium (cap. 50,000)
TV: FCS
By
Kevin Monroe
©2012 Bonesville.net
All rights reserved.
View the Mobile Alpha version of this page.
East
Carolina can defeat Navy on Saturday if it performs well in these
key aspects of the game:
CONTAIN
THE RUNNING GAME
The
Midshipmen have always been and will always be able to run the football.
It's all about the players they recruit. The linemen are generally shorter
and thinner than other Division I teams because there are size requirements
that incoming recruits must meet in order to be in the military. Since they
aren’t as big as other offensive linemen, that usually means they are
quicker and faster than their counterparts. That type of athleticism
leverages the Navy line's ability to come off the ball, make blocks and get
down the field to continue blocking — factors that make the Middies' run
game successful. The average weight of the Navy offensive lineman is about
285 pounds and the average height is about 6-2. Only one lineman is over 300
pounds and only one is over 6-4. Usually I would say that ECU's size
advantage would be smothering to an offensive line that small, but the
dynamics that make Navy so good are the athleticism of those lineman and,
most importantly, the element of misdirection.
The
Midshipmen run a triple open offense that features plenty of ball fakes. The
Pirates will need to tackle each back on every play to make sure they aren’t
fooled. Navy is averaging 236 rushing yards per game this season. If ECU can
keep the Middies under 4 yards per carry and less than 150 yards total
rushing, that would be considered a defensive victory in my book.
GET OFF THE FIELD ON
THIRD DOWN
On third down, Navy is currently converting only 37% of the time, which is
good news for the Pirates. Anything over 50% is generally considered good.
Navy wants to slow down this football game and keep ECU’s quick strike
offense off the field. In the past two games, the Pirates have had one-play
scoring drives on big passing plays to Justin Hardy. The Midshipmen have
seen this on film and will endeavor to avoid getting into a shootout with
ECU. They want to control the game clock by running the football and keeping
the chains moving. Defensively, the Pirates are holding their opponents to
about a 35% conversion rate on third down. East Carolina needs to play tough
on first and second downs and put Navy into situations of third down and 5
yards or more, forcing the Middies to throw the football. Navy quarterback
Trey Miller, who has been hampered with an ankle injury, has been listed as
probable. Freshman Keenan Reynolds should start his third straight game.
Reynolds is only completing 58% of his passes.
DON'T
GIVE UP THE BIG PLAY
Big plays
are those that gain 20 yards or more. When the Midshipmen
beat the Pirates in Greenville in 2010,
they scored 76 points and had several big plays on the ground and through
the air. It will be important to make Navy grind out scores and not have any
one- or two-play drives. Three and outs will be big for the Pirates on
Saturday, but if they are unable to meet that objective, then making the
Midshipman fight for every yard and settle for field goals is the way to go.
BOTTOM LINE
Navy is a
very good football team with a record of 4-3 on the year. The Middies' three
loses have come to teams that have a combined record of 17-4 (Notre Dame,
Penn State and San Jose State). The Pirates will need to score points to
win, but it will be their defense that will make the difference. If they
allow the Midshipmen to move the ball up and down the field and eat up the
clock with no real resistance, the Pirates will lose this game. If they can
slow the run, force Navy to pass the football and hold the Middies to field
goal attempts, the Pirates should win handily. This is a big game for East
Carolina. It would be the Pirates' 6th win and their first three-game
winning streak of the season.
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Kevin Monroe.
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10/26/2012 02:10:06 AM
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