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SURVEYING THE LANDSCAPE
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Pirate Notebook No. 349
Monday, July 7, 2008

By Denny O'Brien

Expectations should be tempered by history

By Denny O'Brien
©2008 Bonesville.net
All Rights Reserved.

Remember 2001? If you don’t, it’s a year in East Carolina’s football annals that is worth revisiting.

The Pirates were greeted that season with the anticipation of possibly reaching the ten-win plateau. Several forecasters even suggested that ECU was a threat to climb into the Top 10 and through the unwelcome doors of the Bowl Championship Series.

Much of that preseason buzz was directly tied to ECU’s explosive arsenal of offensive firepower, perhaps the deepest, most dynamic group in school history.

David Garrard eclipsed virtually every ECU passing record that year, while Leonard Henry had one of the most productive seasons of any East Carolina running back ever. And that’s without even mentioning the Pirates’ outstanding offensive front and talented corps of receivers.

But that was only half of the story. The Pirates’ defense that season was as dreadful as the offense was productive, at times surrendering enough yards to overload a mainframe computer.

The finale itself was a microcosm of the Pirates’ season, with ECU erupting for 61 points while its equalizing defense yielded 64. The result was a numbing 6-6 finish that wasn’t foreseen in any worst-case scenario during the preseason.

Though it is difficult to compare the dynamics of the Pirates this year with the group from 2001, there at least are some similarities that shouldn’t be overlooked. While the preseason hoopla isn’t quite parallel to what ECU experienced nationally in ’01, the buzz closer to home seems to be.

Visions of double-digit victories are beginning to circulate among the faithful. Comparisons of East Carolina’s greatest teams have become common banter and opinions abound about how 2008 could measure up among the school’s most memorable seasons.

Attribute much of the optimism to East Carolina’s upward trend since Skip Holtz took the program’s wheel. Each season has brought improvement in the win column and resulting success on the recruiting trail, so logic might indicate that an increase on last year’s eight wins should occur this fall.

If it weren’t for the schedule, that would be my sentiment, too.

Off the bat, the Pirates have four non-conference games in which they are unlikely to be favored. That starts with the openers against Virginia Tech and West Virginia, two programs that, though they are experiencing transition, are still BCS outfits that are well-stocked with blue-chip talent.

Dates with N.C. State and Virginia won’t be as difficult, though you’re still dealing with programs that are well-coached and talent-heavy. Facing both on the road certainly doesn’t lessen the challenge.

Then there’s the conference slate that includes trips to Southern Miss and Central Florida, neither of which is a gimmee. And you can’t help but wonder if another Conference USA school will play the role of Rice or Marshall to ECU’s championship dreams.

Now this doesn’t mean that there shouldn’t be optimism. After all, Holtz has rebuilt the program with an outstanding staff that has lured solid talent and maximized it by fitting the systematic approach around the skill that is available.

The ceiling has been raised as a result.

But there is no denying that there are glaring questions that should throw caution into certain expectations of what the Pirates’ overall record should be come December.

Beyond the demanding schedule, there are some puzzles that need solving before the Pirates can claim a league title and trip to a bigger bowl.

It starts at quarterback. While the Pirates are infinitely more experienced under center than at this time last year, neither Patrick Pinkney nor Rob Kass seized complete control of the position during the 2007 season.

Both showed flashes of brilliance mixed with periods of struggles. And about the only common thread for both is that all-everything running back Chris Johnson provided the ultimate safety valve when the Pirates needed a rescue.

With Johnson gone, the quarterback’s role within the offense’s success only increases.

Defensively there is no overlooking the struggles the Pirates experienced against the pass last year. Ordinary quarterbacks often looked like Heisman hopefuls, with several breaking personal and single-game school records against ECU.

The amount of returning experience alone should generate improvement, but how dramatic and fast the Pirates progress remains to be seen.

ECU’s intimidating defensive front is widely considered the program’s new linchpin, but again there are uncertainties that can’t be overlooked. Marcus Hands has yet to play an injury-free season while Brandon Setzer’s inconsistency makes him a wild card. Though deep and talented, the defensive line is a couple of injuries away from sending defensive coordinator Greg Hudson into a mad scramble.

There are other areas of concern, too. The kicking game was less than spectacular last season and ECU’s linebackers have a history of injuries. The running back rotation is a work in progress and there are only two proven playmakers at receiver.

Et cetera. Et cetera.

Now if this sounds like a prediction of gloom, you’re missing the point. There are certainly more reasons for optimism than pessimism, and there is no reason to believe the Pirates won’t compete for the C-USA crown and a spot in the AutoZone Liberty Bowl.

But to assume that the program will fulfill any dream scenario in 2008 is to apply unfair pressure on Holtz and his staff. There are too many potentially sobering moments facing the Pirates this year.

Somehow that got overlooked in 2001.

Send an e-mail message to Denny O'Brien.

Dig into Denny O'Brien's Bonesville archives.

07/07/2008 03:16:49 AM

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